[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301816
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-302015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...eastern Tennessee...southern
West Virginia...far western Virginia...and western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301816Z - 302015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal threat for strong to severe gusts will remain
possible with thunderstorm activity through the afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage
across portions of eastern Kentucky into western Virginia this
afternoon. The air mass in this region has warmed and become more
unstable through the morning, with around 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
in recent surface objective analysis. This is also apparent in radar
and satellite trends for in echo tops and cloud top cooling with
ongoing thunderstorm activity. Upper-level flow remains modest
across the region, waning further with south and eastward extent
into far eastern Tennessee/Carolinas. As such, deep layer shear for
organization remains weak, though around 30-35 kts of effective
shear is analyzed across eastern Kentucky. As such, instances of
severe wind should remain fairly isolated and localized. A watch is
unlikely to be needed but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37318629 37688591 37848554 37768414 37878235 37668154
            36718144 35558187 35398221 35208335 35138488 37318629
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