[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 262226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262226
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-262330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...middle and eastern Tennessee into southern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 262226Z - 262330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts will be possible as a band of
storms shifts northeastward across portions of Tennessee and into
southern Kentucky.  WW issuance may not be needed however, due to
isolated nature of this risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows and loosely organized, arcing
band of storms moving across Middle Tennessee at this time -- in
line with recent HRRR runs which depicted this band with reasonable
accuracy.  The storms are moving northeastward through an amply
unstable environment, but with the flow in the lower to middle
troposphere somewhat weak (generally less than 25 kt through the mid
levels), storm organization/intensity should remain generally
limited.  With the storms producing a 35 kt gust when moving through
Nashville, per the KBNA observation, this supports the assessment of
the marginal nature of the risk.  Overall, it appears at this time
that potential for damaging winds should remain sufficiently
isolated to preclude WW consideration.

..Goss/Smith.. 06/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   34528677 35248659 36038689 36478781 36908685 37018493
            36458432 35088518 34528677
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