[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 072040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072040
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-072145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...Southern...central and western Illinois...and far
western Kentucky.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...

Valid 072040Z - 072145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue through this
afternoon across southern, central and western Illinois and far
western Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms have developed
along the remnant outflow boundary from central Illinois to southern
Illinois and far western Kentucky. Across the majority of this area,
storms have likely reached peak intensity as they have propagated
into the cooler/more stable air east of the outflow boundary. The
exception is in central Illinois and western Illinois where very
strong instability remains with the SPC mesoanalysis showing 2500 to
3000 J/kg MLCAPE. In addition, stronger mid-level flow in this
region makes storm organization more likely. In fact, a large
supercell has developed in Sangamon county and has developed a
strong mid-level mesocyclone. Additional towers to the northwest of
this storm may also organize into supercells in the next hour with a
primary threat of large to potentially very large (2+ inch) hail.
Very weak low-level shear should keep the overall tornado threat
limited.

..Bentley.. 05/07/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   38638991 39459047 39999066 40309096 40619106 40829074
            40758968 40408919 40078907 39208842 37488748 37378741
            36728760 36548786 36538834 36708876 37808954 38638991
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