[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071928
TNZ000-KYZ000-072130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northern and northwest Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071928Z - 072130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A short duration severe storm threat is expected across
portions of northern Tennessee between 20Z and 22Z.

DISCUSSION...An arcing line of convection in association with a
mid-level shortwave trough is moving east-northeast across northwest
Tennessee. The airmass ahead of these storms is unstable with MLCAPE
between 2000 and 2500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. This should support
continued updraft intensification. Around 20Z, these storms are
expected to intersect a southwest moving outflow boundary across
northern Tennessee. The increased convergence associated with this
boundary collision should provide a boost to updraft intensity and
an increase short term severe weather threat.

Relatively weak effective shear (25 to 30 knots) and storm
propagation expected north and east of the outflow boundary should
limit the duration of the threat. However, between 20 and 22Z
several strong to severe storms are possible across northern
Tennessee. A watch is not anticipated due to the short duration of
the threat.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/07/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35728663 35718748 35938839 36168884 36538853 36698778
            36668690 36558642 36318623 35918641 35828652 35728663
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