[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071821
TNZ000-KYZ000-071945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0707
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern Kentucky and northern
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071821Z - 071945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms is sagging south across southern
Kentucky. A corridor of greater strong/severe storm threat exists
across portions of south-central Kentucky and far northern
Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has been sagging south across Kentucky
through the morning and mid-day. These storms have been cold pool
dominant and thus have lacked much severe weather threat for the
last 1 to 2 hours. However, on the western edge of this line the
environment is more favorable because:

1. Instability is significantly greater (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg per
SPC mesoanalysis)

2. A "kink" in the outflow boundary has led to a region with more
favorable low-level convergence (currently in Logan County, Kentucky
at 1815Z).

Due to these factors, a narrow corridor may have a greater severe
weather threat over the next 1 to 2 hours with a threat for large
hail and damaging wind gusts. A watch is not likely due to the
localized nature of the threat.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/07/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36918712 37088699 37128667 36898612 36638575 36318572
            36138589 36088624 36248655 36618694 36848710 36918712
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