[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020021
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-020215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...southern and eastern Arkansas/southwestern
Tennessee/northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 50...

Valid 020021Z - 020215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- including potential for a few tornadoes --
continues across much of WW 50.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms scattered across much of
Tornado Watch 50, from southern Arkansas eastward toward the
Tennessee Valley.  Recently, the strongest cell has been one moving
quickly across Garland County AR, toward Hot Springs, where a
tornado warning was recently in effect.  This storm appears to be
just north of -- but riding roughly along -- the surface warm front,
but should move atop a slightly deeper stable layer over the next
half hour which should limit tornado potential.

Farther southwest, another strong cluster of storms that bears
watching is moving across Sevier/Howard Counties in southwestern
Arkansas.

Another cluster of rotating storms is indicated either side of the
Tennessee/Mississippi border, near the eastern edge of WW 50.  A new
watch farther downstream may be a consideration over the next hour
or so.

Overall, with a moist/amply unstable warm sector in place, and a
wind field characterized by weakly veering but strongly increasing
flow with height, potential for severe storms and local tornado risk
will continue over the next few hours.

..Goss.. 03/02/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33899449 34519408 35199099 35818778 35658713 34288743
            33668813 33239182 33259298 33899449
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