[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012256
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-020000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...Western Kentucky into northwest Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 012256Z - 020000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a
diffuse cold front will pose a severe hail and damaging wind risk
for the next several hours. Waning buoyancy heading into the late
evening hours should limit the overall severe potential; watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...IR satellite and regional radar trends show robust
convection developing along a diffuse cold front across the lower OH
River Valley region. This activity is developing within a regime
featuring elongated hodographs with effective shear values near
40-50 knots, but somewhat marginal buoyancy (MLCAPE values near
500-1000 J/kg). However, the continued northward advection of upper
50s and low 60s dewpoints is gradually expanding the effective warm
sector to the northeast, largely in tandem with the northeastward
progression (and slight deepening) of a surface low over the OH
River Valley. This will provide adequate buoyancy to maintain
developing convection for the next several hours, and the favorable
kinematic fields will support storm organization with an
accompanying risk for severe hail and damaging winds. The influence
of low-level moisture advection to the north/northeast will likely
be modulated by diurnal cooling, which may limit overall convective
intensity. Trends will continue to be monitored, but watch issuance
is not expected at this time given the marginal thermodynamic
environment expected downstream.

..Moore/Guyer.. 03/01/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36018762 36028831 36208891 36608914 37148898 37718794
            38128691 38888554 39378477 39408396 38928265 38148255
            37368309 36948415 36628502 36358604 36148688 36018762
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