[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 291848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291847
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-292045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...eastern portions of Tennessee and Kentucky eastward
across Virginia and western/northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291847Z - 292045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk is forecast to evolve as storms
increase in coverage from the Mid South to Virginia/North Carolina
this afternoon.  WW issuance may be needed, to cover potential for
isolated damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated convective development
occurring across eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, with a
couple of stronger updrafts noted.  The convection is evolving
within a moderately unstable environment (mixed-layer CAPE around
2500 J/kg), but within a region of relatively weak flow aloft.
Still, a few stronger storms will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, given the favorably moist/unstable environment.

With time, isolated development is forecast to occur east of the
Appalachian crest as well, into parts of Virginia and
northern/western North Carolina, as the cold front progresses slowly
southeastward.  While CAPE should remain just a bit weaker east of
the mountains, slightly stronger flow aloft should offset this.  As
such, WW issuance may be required to encompass much of the
discussion area.

..Goss/Thompson.. 07/29/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   35118551 36298540 37548463 37918122 37907916 38377516
            36637657 35637931 35118551
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