[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181342
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1612
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southern Illinois...Western
Kentucky...Northwest Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 181342Z - 181515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over central MO are expected to intensify
this morning and track southeastward into the mid MS Valley.
Damaging winds are the main threat.  A WW will likely be issued
soon.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms over central MO west of
Columbia has shown recent signs of intensification.  Visible
satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies ahead of this cluster
(other than thin anvil cirrus), suggesting rapid heating of a very
moist air mass.  MLCAPE values are expected to quickly climb above
2500 J/kg.  Meanwhile, a 50-60 knot mid level jet max in vicinity of
the storms will aid rapid propagation and organization of storms.
Activity is expected to persist through the day and track into
KY/TN.  A watch will likely be needed soon.

..Hart/Bunting.. 07/18/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38439106 38338849 37258732 36318815 36038933 36739208
            37739322 38189299 38439106
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