[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141714
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-141945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northern MS...Middle TN...and northern
AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 141714Z - 141945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible through the
afternoon. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms is tracking
eastward across parts of the Mid-South ahead of an MCV. While
deep-layer flow/shear is not particularly strong, some flow
enhancement associated with the approaching MCV may support briefly
organized updrafts embedded within the larger cluster of storms.
Ahead of these storms, efficient heating of a very moist air mass
(upper 70s/lower 80s dewpoints) is yielding strongly unstable
surface-based inflow (characterized by increasingly agitated HCRs
streaming across the region). Isolated damaging gusts are possible
with this activity through the afternoon -- especially with any
localized clusters that develop.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34728914 34438998 34309037 34149060 33719079 33109068
            32879045 32668984 32638877 32648780 32908703 33358652
            34098620 35428598 35918612 36208645 36388717 36318746
            36068786 35228848 34728914
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