[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 082130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082129
TNZ000-KYZ000-082330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...Western and Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082129Z - 082330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will be capable of
scattered damaging winds through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms moving through Western and
Middle Tennessee has a history produced reports of 60 mph winds and
penny size hail. Daytime heating and dew points in the upper 60s to
mid 70s have supported MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Given weak flow
aloft and deep layer shear around 20 kts, storm mode will likely
remain clustered. RAP sounding analysis shows deep saturation with
large CAPE throughout, supporting potential for wet microbursts and
damaging winds. Given the weak flow and shear for organization, a
watch is unlikely to be needed at this time.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/08/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35178734 35168738 35148757 35148779 35188803 35218819
            35298844 35368852 35508862 35698870 35928858 36078828
            36158785 36168746 36298720 36418697 36538686 36628676
            36668673 36658615 36578574 36278541 36148533 36018527
            35868527 35698538 35498558 35388587 35298608 35238630
            35208652 35198685 35178734
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