[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031748
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Ark-La-Tex region and northern AL
and MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031748Z - 031945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected for the
next several hours. Sporadic gusty winds and small hail will be the
primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Convective development is underway in portions of the
Ark-La-Tex region eastward through northern AL and MS. These
updrafts are forming along and to the south of a weak cold front
with temperatures generally in the low 90s F and dewpoints in the
70s F. Boundary-layer mixing beneath mostly clear skies has yielded
an uncapped airmass characterized by around 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE and
effective shear around 15-20 kts. Convective development thus far is
consistent with environmental expectations, including locally
stronger updraft pulses with reflectivity cores extending to around
40000+ ft (e.g., Lawrence County cell in northern AL). The overall
environment will remain mostly steady for the next few hours as the
weak cold front becomes quasi-stationary beneath modest, zonal flow
aloft. As such, continued scattered thunderstorm development is
expected with sporadic damaging wind gusts and small hail being the
primary threats with stronger local updraft pulses.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33319511 34179455 34859302 35139009 35138807 34988646
            34738606 33798617 33218678 32698800 32279037 32089226
            32269355 32619442 33319511
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