[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 120642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120641
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Areas affected...the Missouri Bootheel area and surrounding states

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 120641Z - 121015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will spread across the region, and a few could
produce hail over 1.00" diameter and strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms currently extend from northern AR into
southern MO, with the strongest storms over northern AR near a warm
front. While cooling aloft is occurring farther west into southwest
MO and northwest AR, low-level warm advection will continue across
northeast AR and toward the lower OH Valley tonight.

Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates aloft and strong
deep-layer shear, with modest instability overall as boundary-layer
dewpoints rise into the upper 50s to near 60 F. While SBCIN and cool
temperatures may mitigate tornado risk, supercells/bowing structures
may still occur with the primary threat hail and locally strong wind
gusts. The most likely area for severe appears to be associated with
the activity over northeast AR near the warm front, and as this
evolves northeastward tonight. A watch could be considered should
storm trends increase.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/12/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35809079 36279093 36849034 37348934 37418862 37168810
            36738795 36218817 35848887 35618996 35809079
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