[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031356
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-031600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana...Mississippi...Northwest
Alabama...Middle Tennessee...

Concerning...Tornado Watch 6...

Valid 031356Z - 031600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue this morning from
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the
Tennessee Valley. Wind damage and tornadoes will be the primary
threats. A new weather watch may be needed to the east of the
current watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest regional mosaic radar imagery shows an
organized line of strong to severe storms located from eastern
Louisiana north and northeastward into western Tennessee. The
airmass ahead of this line is weakly unstable in the Tennessee
Valley and moderately unstable in the lower Mississippi Valley.
According to the RAP, MLCAPE ranges from near 500 J/kg in western
Tennessee to about 1500 J/kg in eastern Louisiana. In addition, the
line of storms is near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet,
which is enhancing lift and shear. WSR-88D VWPs near the axis of the
jet have 0-6 km shear between 50 and 60 knots and 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear
environment will likely continue to support supercells with
wind-damage and tornado potential. The threat should gradually shift
eastward, which could necessitate watch issuance later this morning.

..Broyles.. 01/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...
SHV...

LAT...LON   35478618 35948567 36328567 36498586 36658641 36468700
            35878783 34878899 33659057 33269101 32709167 32069232
            31579275 31209285 30859275 30729265 30699231 30829193
            31409112 33078909 34008783 35478618
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