[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161330
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South

Concerning...Tornado Watch 37...

Valid 161330Z - 161500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 37 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, including the potential for a
few tornadoes, will continue this morning.

DISCUSSION...The environment over western TN and vicinity remains
conditionally favorable for severe convection. Ongoing activity
ahead of a cold front is largely tied to persistent warm advection
associated with a 40-50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet. Enlarged
hodographs in the 0-1-km layer will support updraft rotation with
any supercell that be sustained. The main limiting factors so far
this morning appear to be convection being undercut by the surging
cold front, and the warm-advection-related thunderstorms becoming
slightly elevated above the warm front as they move quickly
northeastward into western/central KY. Nevertheless, recent VWPs
from TMEM show ample low-level shear, and a tornado threat remains
apparent in the short term across western TN and immediate
surrounding areas. Isolated hail and damaging winds will also be
possible. Any appreciable severe threat will end from west to east
as the cold front continues to advance across this region.

..Gleason.. 02/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35579089 36468994 36668942 36978773 36618748 36128764
            34768948 34749046 35069092 35579089
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