[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

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ACUS11 KWNS 021104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021103
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-021600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of southern Arkansas into portions of the
western half of Tennessee

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 021103Z - 021600Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain, falling at rates in excess of 0.05"/hour,
on average, with higher amounts locally, will continue falling
through mid morning from parts of southern Arkansas portions of the
western half of Tennessee

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a zone of precipitation
extending from central and northeastern Texas streaming
east-northeastward into/across the Tennessee Valley area.  This
precipitation is occurring within a zone of isentropic ascent atop a
cold boundary layer, in advance of a slowly-eastward-moving upper
system, currently centered in the vicinity of Far West Texas.

Present indications are that as this system slowly advances, the
persistent upglide will continue to support the ongoing
precipitation band, with the heaviest amounts likely to extend from
the Arklatex vicinity to the Tennessee Valley.

Latest analysis of surface temperatures shows that most of
northeastern Texas, and a majority of northern Louisiana remain
above freezing, with a wavy 32 degrees F isotherm extending across
southern Arkansas, northeastward to northern Mississippi, and into
Middle Tennessee.  North of this isotherm, freezing rain is expected
to continue, becoming somewhat heavier in parts of the area over the
next couple of hours, before eventually diminishing gradually, later
this morning.  This evolution is supported by the latest RAP
forecast, which shows the heaviest amounts of freezing rain likely
to occur within this area, and also by latest HREF output which also
hints at this scenario.

..Goss.. 02/02/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33149328 33389360 33879416 34609242 35298960 35698902
            35888841 36228716 35808719 35488785 35038893 34298976
            34379074 33609093 33749175 33149209 33099301 33149328
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