[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 092045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092045
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-092215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...Northern AL into middle/eastern TN and eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 092045Z - 092215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase as storms approach from
the west. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 3-4 PM CST.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is currently ongoing from
southern KY into western TN and northwest MS. While instability is
currently quite limited from eastern TN into southeast KY, some
moistening/destabilization is expected with time through late
afternoon, aided by rather strong southwesterly low-level flow above
the surface. With longer-lived supercells already ongoing, organized
convection may spread eastward even as the environment becomes
somewhat less favorable, with a continued threat of a couple
tornadoes and locally damaging wind.

In addition to ongoing convection, additional development is
possible ahead of the approaching cold front across parts of
northern AL into southern middle TN, as a low-level warm advection
regime gradually increases into this evening. Supercells may evolve
out of this activity as well, with an attendant threat of all severe
hazards.

Given the concerns described above, Tornado Watch issuance is likely
for parts of the region by 3-4 PM CST.

..Dean/Guyer.. 12/09/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34468794 34838770 35668610 37558491 37698475 37728440
            37548402 37438395 37148407 36618437 35838485 34948574
            34358634 34468794
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