[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 092000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091959
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-092130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...Western/central KY...Western/middle TN...Northwest
MS...Eastern AR...Northwest AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 714...

Valid 091959Z - 092130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 714 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and isolated severe
wind/hail will continue through the afternoon, with storm coverage
expected to increase with time.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is ongoing early this
afternoon from western TN into eastern AR, with occasional rotating
cells noted within a larger storm cluster across western KY. A
supercell cluster currently approaching the TN/KY border produced an
earlier apparent tornado in northwest TN, with another tornado
recently noted just southwest of the KHPX radar. The other cells
along the broken line will continue to pose a threat of all severe
hazards as they move east-northeastward. These cells are ongoing
along and just ahead of a composite outflow boundary/cold front that
will continue to move eastward this afternoon. Deep-layer flow
parallel to the boundary may encourage an increase in storm coverage
and a transition to more of a mixed mode with time, though embedded
supercells will likely continue to be possible through the
afternoon, with all severe hazards possible.

The greatest short-term tornado threat (including the potential for
a strong tornado) will likely continue to be focused from far
northwest MS into western/middle TN, southern KY, and eventually
extreme northwest AL, where the most favorable overlap of
low-level/deep-layer shear (including 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2
noted on regional VWPs and objective mesoanalyses) and instability
(MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will persist this afternoon, prior to the
arrival of the front. This area is being upgraded to an Enhanced
Risk (driven by 10% tornado probabilities) in the upcoming 20Z
outlook. Also, downstream watch issuance will likely be needed later
this afternoon, as storms approach a larger portion of middle TN
into northwest AL.

..Dean.. 12/09/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33789213 36798744 37298748 37808641 37888586 37788538
            37348501 35628616 34618772 33659023 33769178 33789213
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