[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue Mar 22 11:58:05 CDT 2022

ACUS11 KWNS 221657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221657
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 221657Z - 221900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in potential for damaging winds and QLCS
tornadoes is expected through the afternoon. A watch will likely be
considered in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Filtered sunshine through upper-level clouds has warmed
temperatures into the upper 60s F across northern
Mississippi/Alabama. More importantly, dewpoints which began the day
in the 40s F have now risen into the low 50s F as the warm front has
continued to the north. Given the current northeastward speed of the
ongoing convection in western Mississippi, continued destabilization
should support on the order of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid/late
afternoon. Greater uncertainty in sufficient destabilization exists
in north-central into northwest Mississippi. A favorably timed
increase in the 850-700 mb winds will bring an attendant threat for
damaging wind gusts and QLCS-embedded circulations/tornadoes.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 03/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33748858 33748949 33738984 33839022 34079016 34548991
            34878949 35018887 35278795 35148734 34788664 34338653
            34008687 33888745 33798832 33748858
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