[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261508
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-261715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Areas affected...southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas...northwest
Tennessee...west Kentucky...and far southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261508Z - 261715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will persist this morning. Marginally severe
hail and wind will be possible in the strongest thunderstorms. A
watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm cluster continues to move
east-southeast this morning across portions of the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Additional thunderstorms are developing ahead of this
approaching thunderstorm cluster. As these thunderstorms move into
or develop within an axis of greater instability stretching from
central Arkansas northeast into southeast Missouri, episodic upticks
in updraft intensity may occur. As such, thunderstorms may briefly
be capable of marginally severe hail and wind, and recent MRMS
trends suggest a thunderstorm across Wayne County, Missouri may be
capable of hail around 1 inch. Weak deep-layer and effective-layer
shear -- as indicated by the circular nature the developing anvils
-- should limit the the severe potential to short temporal and small
spatial scales, driven primarily by storm-scale processes.

A watch is currently not anticipated.

..Marsh/Hart.. 06/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36909127 37829024 38348909 37828778 37008687 35478685
            34528790 34328918 34639073 35299134 36909127
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