[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 070237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070237
KYZ000-TNZ000-070530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of western/middle TN and southwest KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 070237Z - 070530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe risk could linger over parts of
western/middle TN and southwest KY into the overnight hours. Watch
issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...A plume of warm advection and related strong low-level
flow continues to overspread parts of western/middle TN into
southwest KY this evening, where clusters of storms and transient
supercell structures are ongoing. While the airmass has been largely
overturned during the last several hours, rich boundary layer
moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) are contributing to pockets
of surface-based instability beneath poor midlevel lapse rates per
the 00z BNA sounding. With that said, regional VWP data shows
favorably large, clockwise turning low-level hodographs
characterized by 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and 35-45 kt 0-6 km shear.

Any longer-lived cells that can intercept pockets of surface-based
buoyancy amid the favorable boundary-layer streamwise vorticity
could exhibit supercell characteristics. Therefore, a tornado or two
and locally damaging gusts cannot be entirely ruled out. With time,
there may be a tendency for convection to grow upscale, and severe
gusts could be a growing concern with eastward extent. Given already
limited buoyancy and the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer
stability, the threat appears too marginal and localized for watch
consideration at this time.

..Weinman/Hart.. 06/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35388975 36208894 36738840 37098802 37498748 37618665
            37538595 37328536 36928516 36268550 35278719 35048823
            35068962 35388975
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