[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181844
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-182045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Areas affected...East Tennessee to western North Carolina and
western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 181844Z - 182045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Wind damage is possible through the afternoon as a line of
weak thunderstorms moves across east Tennessee and into western
North Carolina and Virginia. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A line of weak thunderstorms has been tracked in
regional reflectivity mosaics over the past couple of hours.
Recently, this line of cells has exhibited an increase in lightning
counts coincident with cooling cloud top temperatures. Additionally,
KMRX velocity data shows a few pockets of stronger winds within this
line. This increase in intensity is likely the result of increasing
buoyancy ahead of the line via diurnal warming within a moist air
mass. Regional VWPs continue to sample weak flow aloft with latest
estimates of nearly 20 knots of effective bulk shear. This will
limit the overall severe potential, but steep low-level lapse rates
(near 8 C/km) ahead of the line will support a wind damage potential
across east TN and western VA/NC. Given the low-end environment a
watch is not expected.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   34998506 36448456 36918297 37378131 37628022 37327956
            36697937 36048071 35498174 35118274 34808375 34748426
            34998506
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet