[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121929
TNZ000-KYZ000-122100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...portions of southern Kentucky into Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121929Z - 122100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger storms may mature along/ahead of a
southward sagging cold front this afternoon, with isolated damaging
gusts possible. A WW issuance is not currently anticipated given the
expected isolated nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...A relatively diffuse cold front continues to sag
southward, with convective initiation underway across the TN Valley.
Stronger storms have already materialized across central KY (see
Mesoscale Discussion 1458 for more details) and additional storms
may develop farther southwest along the front through the afternoon.
Deep-layer shear and ascent is expected to be weaker compared to
points farther northeast as the mid-level trough continues track
northeast across the Mid Atlantic/New England. Nonetheless, strong
heating is underway along the TN/KY border contributing to 3000+
J/kg MLCAPE amid minimal convective inhibition. As such, a couple of
damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms despite weaker
tropospheric shear. Given the expected sparse coverage of severe, a
WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35598916 36028870 36338819 36658712 36858649 37118582
            37018553 36678526 36368519 36248524 36008540 35738604
            35578688 35558762 35598916
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet