[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061719
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-061915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kentucky...eastern Tennessee...far
southwest Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061719Z - 061915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storm development is expected across eastern
Kentucky into eastern Tennessee. A few damaging downbursts will be
possible. A watch is not currently expected for this regime.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed in eastern Kentucky as a
high-PWAT airmass has destabilized. Though MLCAPE is 2500-3500 J/kg,
shear is quite weak as noted on the KJKL and KMRX VAD. Storms will
likely develop and become briefly intense. Localized damaging
downbursts will be the primary concern with this activity. There is
some potential for storms to move into the region from the northwest
later this afternoon. However, the track of the MCV is such that
shear is not expected to improve today. A watch is not expected for
these generally disorganized storms.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36778240 36038324 35698434 36118539 36578552 36758537
            37348485 37788445 38258388 38218360 38078315 37228214
            36778240
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