[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071749
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-071945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071749Z - 071945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous storms capable of localized wind
damage are expected this afternoon. A watch is not expected, but
trends will be monitored for areas of greater wind damage potential.

DISCUSSION...Areas south of a stationary front within the lower Ohio
Valley have warmed into the mid 80s to the mid 90s F. Despite poor
lapse rates aloft, the very moist (uniformly low/mid 70s F
dewpoints) airmass will support 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE this
afternoon. Minimal shear will lead to disorganized storms that pulse
in intensity. Localized wind damage will be the primary threat with
this activity. Given the scattered to numerous storms anticipated,
some potential exists for clusters to develop. If and where this
occurs, wind damage potential would be locally enhanced. Confidence
in the need for a severe thunderstorm watch is low, but trends in
cold pool organization will be monitored through the afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36768819 37088788 37338713 37418709 37438570 37298503
            37148463 36068419 35528309 35398229 35428168 35038157
            34228225 33808305 33688347 33688405 33868534 34788730
            35838850 36348842 36768819
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