[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061314
KYZ000-TNZ000-061715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CST Thu Jan 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern into central through
southeastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 061314Z - 061715Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to at least occasionally heavy snow appears
likely to develop through 10 AM-Noon CST, with rates up to 1-2
inches per hour possible.

DISCUSSION...Sub-freezing thermodynamic profiles continue to
gradually saturate across the lower Ohio Valley, in response to
sustained large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching
amplifying short wave trough.  Through 14-18Z an expanding area of
light to moderate snow appears likely to develop across much of
Kentucky.

Embedded within this regime, forecast soundings indicate that upward
vertical motion will at least occasionally become maximized within
favorably cold mid-level layers supportive of large dendritic ice
crystal growth, and heavier snow rates.  However, it remains unclear
from the model output how sustained this may be at any particular
location.

An area of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, near the
leading edge of better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of
Mexico, may remain one possible focus for a couple hour period of
sustained heavy snow rates, across the Greater Nashville area and
adjacent Interstate 40 corridor of middle Tennessee into the
Interstate 75 corridor of southeastern Kentucky.  Otherwise, model
output continues to indicate a period of strengthening lower/mid
tropospheric frontogenetic forcing across southwestern through
central Kentucky into midday.  This may provide support for one or
more intensifying bands with the potential to produce 1-2 inch per
hour snow rates, as precipitable water increases to around .5
inches.

..Bentley.. 01/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37338753 37918558 37318364 36308415 36708590 36458767
            36728862 37338753
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