[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061047
TNZ000-061445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 AM CST Thu Jan 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of western into middle Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 061047Z - 061445Z

SUMMARY...An area of heavy snow, with rates on the order of 1-2+
inches per hour, may develop and overspread parts of western through
middle Tennessee, including much of the Greater Nashville
metropolitan area, through 6-10 AM CST.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of an amplifying short wave trough (and
associated jet streak intensifying in excess of 100 kt around 500
mb) digging across the central Great Plains, mid/upper moisture
return of mid-latitude Pacific origin is ongoing across the lower
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys region.  At the same time, moisture return
from the western Gulf of Mexico is also underway, on southwesterly
low-level flow across the northwestern Gulf coast toward this same
region, above the leading edge of an Arctic air mass continuing to
nose southward to the lee of the Rockies.

Increasing large-scale ascent is contributing to saturation of
thermodynamic profiles across much of Kentucky and Tennessee, which
are largely (and will be maintained) below freezing.  This will
increasingly include the boundary-layer, where some areas remain
just above freezing, as precipitation initially evaporates and
contributes to wet-bulb cooling.

Through 12-16Z, strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection,
beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow appears likely to
contribute to a gradually consolidating and expanding area of
moderate snow across a large portion of the Mid South.  It appears
that the heaviest snow may become focused just ahead of a frontal
wave, across parts of western into middle Tennessee, where models
suggest that lift will become maximized in the dendritic growth
zone, near the nose of the better low-level Gulf moisture return
(including precipitable water on the order of .50-.70 inches).  This
may include a couple hour period with snow rates of 1-2+ inches per
hour.

..Kerr.. 01/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   36158876 36588628 36098500 35568669 35248791 36158876
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