[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011629
KYZ000-TNZ000-011730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...Central KY....Western and Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011629Z - 011730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado may occur
with the convective line moving across central KY and western TN.

DISCUSSION...Convectively augmented outflow boundary continues to
push southeastward through central KY and western TN. Some deep
convection exists along this boundary, although the lack of
lightning suggest the warm temperatures aloft are limiting overall
updraft depth. Recent radar trends have shown a modest increase in
low-level reflectivity as well as some increase in forward motion.
These trends suggest the thermodynamic environment has slightly
improved, allowing more shear/buoyancy balance along the outflow as
opposed to undercutting previously observed. Consequently, given the
strong kinematic fields, this could lead to more convectively
augmented downdrafts reaching the surface and an increased chance
for damaging wind gusts. Veering low-level wind profiles suggest
that a brief tornado could also occur.

The generally modest thermodynamics do cast some doubt towards the
overall coverage of damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes over the
next few hours, introducing uncertainty into the need for watch.
However, convective trends will be monitored closely and a watch may
eventually be needed.

..Mosier/Grams.. 01/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36198863 37568614 37688517 37388468 36188675 35848819
            36198863
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