[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010807
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-011000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Arkansas...the Missouri
Bootheel...and northwestern Tennessee into southern Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...

Valid 010807Z - 011000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorm
development may persist through the 4-6 AM CST time frame, posing a
risk for occasional strong to severe surface gusts, and perhaps some
lingering risk for a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing (with a
couple of significant embedded perturbations--including one
progressing east of the southern Rockies through daybreak), a narrow
corridor of vigorous thunderstorm development appears likely to
persist through the 10-12Z time frame, along an axis north of Little
Rock AR through the Missouri Bootheel and Bowling Green KY
vicinities.  This is focused along the edge of stronger mid-level
capping on the northwestern periphery of subtropical ridging (and
associated warm layers aloft), and appears generally rooted within
warm advection above at least a shallow neutral to stable
surface-based layer.  However, an influx of seasonably high moisture
content appears to be contributing to moderately large most-unstable
CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg, in the presence of strong
cloud-bearing layer shear.

Models do suggest that southwesterly flow around 850 mb probably
will continue to strengthen through this morning along this
corridor, from 40 to 50+ kt, in association with a weak/low
amplitude frontal wave.  However, it remains unclear the extent to
which this may contribute to a substantive further increase in
discrete supercell storms, as stronger convection continues to grow
upscale and tends to remain at least slightly elevated above the
stable surface-based layer reinforced by training convection.  The
evolution of bowing segments appears more probable, with some
potential for heavy precipitation loading in stronger storms to aid
the downward mixing of higher momentum through the near surface
stable layer, and occasionally contribute to potentially damaging
surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 01/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35859153 36678924 37268669 36838508 36118827 35648993
            35049131 34889227 35409240 35859153
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