[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062211
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-062345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0555
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Thu May 06 2021

Areas affected...Northern MS/AL...Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062211Z - 062345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic wind damage will be possible this evening with a
weakening line of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...At 22Z, an arcing line of low-topped thunderstorms is
approaching portions of northern MS/AL into middle TN, in
conjunction with a compact midlevel vorticity maximum moving
southeastward into portions of the OH/TN valleys. Wind gusts of
40-45 kt have been noted with the line across western TN within the
last hour. While buoyancy is weak across the region (MUCAPE
generally 500 J/kg or less), steep low-level lapse rates within a
dry, well-mixed boundary layer continue to support the potential for
stronger wind gusts capable of producing at least isolated wind
damage.

The already weak instability will diminish even further this
evening, with the onset of nocturnal cooling/boundary-layer
stabilization. However, given the relative strength of the midlevel
system and surface cold pool, some threat for sporadic damaging wind
gusts will continue for awhile this evening as convection gradually
weakens. At this time, the remaining threat appears too limited in
duration and magnitude for additional watch issuance.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34698986 34918869 35608767 36608686 36588594 35468575
            34758597 34208648 33798755 33708858 33738945 33998997
            34279051 34679039 34698986
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