[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061702
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-061900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Thu May 06 2021

Areas affected...Southeast MO/MO Bootheel...Southern IL...Far
Western KY...Western TN...Northeast AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061702Z - 061900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across the
region this afternoon as strong to severe thunderstorms develop
along and ahead of the cold front.

DISCUSSION...Updrafts continue to deepen within the convective
cluster along and ahead of the cold front moving southeastward into
southeast MO and adjacent southern IL. Expectation is for these
storms to continued to strengthen as they move into the slightly
warmer and more moist air mass downstream.

Cold mid-level temperatures and resulting steep lapse rates will
support moderate buoyancy, despite the relatively modest low-level
moisture. Strong unidirectional deep-layer flow will result in fast
storm motion as well as the potential for a strong, convectively
augmented wind gusts. Additionally, given the cold mid-level
temperatures and moderate mid-level flow, hail is also possible with
the stronger updrafts. Anticipated strong to severe nature of the
storms merits possible watch issuance and convective trends are
being monitored closely.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

LAT...LON   37339077 38128968 37758824 36678775 35638830 35248919
            35329036 36129123 37339077
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