[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030205
TNZ000-030330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

Areas affected...portions of Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 030205Z - 030330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado
remain possible over the next couple of hours. The brief, isolated
nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...A few discrete storm structures have recently exhibited
transient supercell characteristics over the past hour, with brief
instances of low to mid-level rotation noted via KOHX and MRMS
mosaic radar data. MRMS MESH also suggests that up 1 inch diameter
stones may be falling with some of the stronger storms. The 00Z BNA
observed sounding sampled near 1500 J/kg SBCAPE, with over 500 J/kg
MLCAPE. While this instability is gradually waning with nocturnal
cooling, the BNA sounding and 01Z KOHX VWP have sampled around 150
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, all of which is included in the effective storm
inflow layer. As such, a tornado cannot be ruled out with any of the
stronger storms that manages to develop a persistent low-level
mesocyclone, in addition to a damaging gust or two and perhaps some
marginally severe hail. However, given gradual boundary-layer
stabilization, the ongoing storms are likely at peak intensity, with
the spatial coverage of severe expected to be quite sparse. As such,
a WW issuance is not currently planned.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   35788833 36278797 36558771 36568725 36438651 36298615
            36068604 35828617 35658676 35648787 35788833
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