[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031726
KYZ000-TNZ000-031930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021

Areas affected...Central KY...Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031726Z - 031930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of damaging wind gusts and/or
isolated hail are possible for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple southwest-to-northeast oriented thunderstorm
bands have developed from central KY into middle TN ahead of the
upper low currently centered near the convergence of MS and OH
Rivers. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow aloft precedes this
upper low, stretching from northwest MS through the TN Valley and
through the northern Mid-Atlantic. Overall instability is modest
(i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis), but still
sufficient for thunderstorm development. Some localized increases in
buoyancy are possible in areas where cloud breaks and resulting
stronger diurnal heating occurs. Given this combination of buoyancy
and moderate flow aloft, a few stronger storms capable of damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail may develop. Overall duration and
coverage of any strong to severe storms is expected to be limited,
owing predominately to the lack of stronger buoyancy.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   38258528 38778445 38698382 38458369 37558407 36328444
            35288540 35448821 38258528
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