[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292238
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

Areas affected...northeast Mississippi into northern Alabama and
southern Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 569...570...

Valid 292238Z - 300045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 569, 570 continues.

SUMMARY...Conditions will remain most favorable for tornadoes over
the next several hours from northeast Mississippi into northern
Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...A cold front currently extends from Middle TN across
northern MS and into southeast AR, enhanced by outflow. Recently, a
line of cells has developed from TN into northern MS, with the
orientation of these cells removed from the cold front.

Areas of rotation have been noted with cells both along the cold
front near the TN/MS border, and farther southwest. Given the
deep-layer shear vector orientation, and strong 60 kt magnitudes, it
is anticipated that a few of these cells may remain enough ahead of
the cold front to become tornadic supercells, whereas farther north
into TN, a QLCS is most likely.

Strong west/southwest 850 mb flow will continue to advect theta-e
northeastward ahead of these cells. 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 exists
per objective analysis, maximized near the old outflow boundary.
Therefore, a tornadic supercell or two appears possible as cells
mature within the high-shear environment. In addition, damaging
winds will be likely with solid portions of the line, and additional
counties may need watch consideration later this evening downstream
into eastern TN and northern GA.

..Jewell.. 12/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35518746 35528730 35448665 35068640 34448668 33678741
            33428816 33398876 33428946 33568970 34058954 34368912
            34828856 35188805 35518746
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