[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292036
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

Areas affected...portions of Middle TN...northern AL and northwest
GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 292036Z - 292300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase from late
afternoon into this evening. Timing of watch issuance remains
uncertain, but may be needed within the next 2-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery slowly continues this afternoon across
parts of northern AL in the wake of morning/early afternoon showers.
A surface boundary related to this earlier precipitation extends
west to east from roughly Haleyville AL into far northwest GA. Some
additional destabilization is expected with northward extent across
the MCD area in a sustained warm advection regime through the
evening hours. However, latest hi-res guidance continues to indicate
some uncertainty with regards to the northward extent of severe
potential, as well as in timing of the severe threat. Most guidance,
along with observational trends, preclude discrete warm sector
development in deference to an eastward-advancing, and currently
developing, bow/QLCS in the vicinity of the Mississippi
River/western TN/northwest MS as of 2030z/230pm CST. The best
estimate of severe storms moving into the MCD area is between
22-00z.

Once storms do emerge over the region, a strong low-level jet and
bowing segments will favor damaging gusts, with a few mesovortex
tornadoes possible as well. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored as a watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD
area in the next 2-3 hours.

..Leitman/Hart.. 12/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33818564 33508679 33418766 33538812 33708824 34248826
            35018822 35338794 35498757 35548706 35448624 35328552
            35138516 34848500 34538496 34348502 34198514 33888544
            33818564
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