[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101817
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-102015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1454
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Northeast Alabama...Northwest Georgia...Eastern
Tennessee...and far Western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 101817Z - 102015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Pulse storms developing with a few damaging wind gusts
possible, watch issuance unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar trends show widespread
convective development occurring in response to strong diabatic
heating. Ample ambient low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in
the low to mid 70s) combined with day time heating has resulted in
MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg across the region. Despite moderate
instability, flow throughout the troposphere is generally weak.
Thus, pulse convection is expected to be the predominant mode,
although some merging of outflow may allow the convection to
coalesce. These outflows may produce sporadic damaging winds gusts
with the strongest cells. However, widespread coverage is not
expected, and therefore watch issuance is unlikely for the remainder
of the afternoon.

..Karstens/Grams.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33668378 33198490 33618703 34838762 35778734 36468601
            36248417 35118349 33668378
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet