[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281509
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-281645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Areas affected...northeast MS...far northwest AL...middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 281509Z - 281645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few mini supercells may pose a risk for a tornado
through the early afternoon from northeast MS and eventually
spreading northeastward into parts of far northwest AL and middle
TN.  The spatial coverage of the tornado risk will likely be
confined to discrete storms on the southeastern flank of the rain
shield over the MS Valley.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of mini supercells over
northeast MS developing to the southeast of a rain shield in
association with Laura.  Visible satellite imagery shows a
scattered-broken cumulus field immediately ahead of the developing
convection from northeast MS northwestward into middle TN.  KGWX and
KOHX VAD data show around 40 kt at 2km AGL and the magnitude of flow
is represented well by RAP forecast soundings over this area.
Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is noted on the forecast soundings and
appreciable clockwise curvature is evident in the hodograph.  Given
the conditionally favorable combination of sufficient buoyancy and
low-level shear, it seems plausible a risk for mini supercells may
continue with some tornado risk through the late morning and into
the afternoon.  A small/focused tornado watch is being considered.

..Smith/Grams.. 08/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34428911 35288828 36238781 36168698 35908659 35468679
            34218865 34428911
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