[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121845
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-122015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Areas affected...Northern and central Alabama and far southern
Middle Tennessee.

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 121845Z - 122015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat currently over Mississippi will
shift east into Alabama later this afternoon. A downstream tornado
watch will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A MCS moved across northern Louisiana this morning and
produced numerous TDS signatures. This same cluster of storms has
produced a TDS more recently (~1830Z) in west-central Mississippi.
This same line of storms is expected to move east northeastward into
northern Alabama later this afternoon and into the evening. The
airmass across northern Alabama has destabilized across the last
several hours and continued moistening/warming is expected as the
warm front lifts north. Therefore, this ongoing MCS is expected to
maintain its current intensity and likely strengthen further as it
moves into Alabama.

A 997mb meso-low has formed in southeast AR/western MS. This has
acted to locally enhance the backing of surface winds ahead of these
storms. This has led to very large 0-1 SRH values near 700 m2/s2 per
GWX VWP. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes will continue to be a
threat with this MCS as storms move eastward. However, there is a
conditional threat for surface based supercells to develop south of
this activity in the warm sector. If this occurs, a significant,
threat would become more likely.

A tornado watch will be needed soon east of the current watch in
Mississippi.

..Bentley.. 04/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34968816 35328796 35498754 35368681 35138597 34978567
            34558551 33968543 33478534 33018558 32368687 32208771
            32108820 32228845 34308822 34968816
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