[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261730
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-261930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019

Areas affected...Northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261730Z - 261930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong low-level flow may mix down to the surface in
association with narrow cold-frontal convective showers, especially
in areas with more broken low-level cloud cover. Isolated
strong/severe gusts possible. No WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...A narrow band of low-topped convection has developed
along a sharp cold front in northwestern Alabama. Little to no
lightning has been observed with this activity. While mixed-layer
buoyancy on the order of a few hundred J/kg will limit overall
intensity of these convective showers/thunderstorms, strong
low-level flow (40-60 kts) in the lowest few kilometers) may mix
down to the surface. Relative to surrounding areas, northwest
Alabama exhibits more broken cloud cover on visible satellite,
allowing for slightly better destabilization/low-level lapse rates.
As such, a few strong/severe wind gusts may occur with this
activity. Limited extent of this marginal threat precludes WW
issuance.

..Wendt/Grams.. 10/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   33148823 33688823 34228818 34888800 35118788 35188726
            35018700 34348671 33938664 33378667 33108775 33148823

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