[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211159
TNZ000-KYZ000-211330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Areas affected...western and middle TN...parts of south western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 211159Z - 211330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A squall line with a LEWP structure will likely continue
moving northeastward from the AR/TN border to the lower TN River
area during the next few hours.  Isolated damaging gusts or a
brief/weak tornado are possible with mesovortices, especially where
instability is greatest over western TN.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken squall line over the lower
MS and lower OH Valleys this morning.  A warm front over northeast
MS and western TN is slow to move north-northeast with cooler/drier
air emanating from a surface ridge located along the East Coast.
South/west of the warm front, surface dewpoints have risen into the
lower-middle 60s degrees F during the past few hours, and have
contributed to weak buoyancy.  The strongly forced squall line and
intense shear will support storm organization/longevity.  The
primary complicating factor is the magnitude of destabilization that
can occur for areas east tornado watch 681.  It is uncertain at this
time whether an additional weather watch (likely severe
thunderstorm) will be needed east of the eastern bound of tornado
watch 681.  An eastward adjustment via watch extension in area (EXA)
of tornado watch 681 may be done for the remaining part of Memphis
WFO county warning area depending on convective/observational
trends.

..Smith/Edwards.. 10/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36638846 36918781 37018702 36358675 35928710 35038813
            35058880 36638846

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