[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 302052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302052
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-302215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Areas affected...Southeastern Arkansas...western through northern
Mississippi...and western through Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302052Z - 302215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Convection will continue to gradually develop across the
discussion area over the next several hours, posing a threat for
hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.  A WW issuance may
eventually be needed pending convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Although most of the pre-frontal warm sector has been
capped through the afternoon, recent radar/satellite indicates
localized breaches of the inversion associated with gradually
deepening convection near/north of Jackson, TN and also along the
cold front near Bradley/Drew counties in Arkansas.  These trends
should continue through the remainder of the afternoon in response
to convergence along the front, continued surface
warming/destabilization, and the glancing influence of a shortwave
trough centered over Missouri.  Strong deep shear (around 50 kts)
and weak surface-based instability (around 1000-1250 J/kg) will
support a gradually increasing risk of damaging wind gusts and hail
with convection that can deepen and mature along and ahead of the
front.  Veered low-level flow will limit the overall tornado risk,
although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out -
especially where localized backing enhances SRH.

..Cook/Grams.. 03/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35748699 34998812 33548971 32789090 32829178 33329172
            34279092 35478972 36078899 36528792 36628691 36528653
            36198646 35748699
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