[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301854
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-302100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Areas affected...Western/central Kentucky...northwestern
Tennessee...and far southern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 301854Z - 302100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection has increased in the general vicinity of
Paducah, Kentucky over the past 15-30 minutes, with hail and gusty
winds possible as storms migrate east.  Convective trends are being
monitored for any evolving wind threat, which may necessitate a WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...An uptick in convection has been noted across portions
of far western Kentucky near the Ohio River over the past 15-30
minutes or so.  This increase is likely tied to ascent and cooling
aloft associated with an upstream mid-level wave and associated jet
streak centered over Missouri.  These storms are in an environment
characterized by modest surface-based instability (500-750 J/kg) and
strong deep shear (50-65 kts) favoring continued organization.  The
favorable wind fields and forcing may overcome relatively weak
instability and support damaging wind gusts - especially if storms
can grow upscale into linear segments as they propagate eastward.  A
brief/isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, although veering
low-level flow with time should mitigate this threat.

..Cook/Grams.. 03/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36668649 36018804 35888916 36018963 36228972 36628956
            37278888 37648825 38068737 38478640 38568598 38498556
            38228529 37898526 37548544 37218566 36668649
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet