[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091927
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-092130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...northern Mississippi...western
Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

Valid 091927Z - 092130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts remain possible
across the region this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A large area of rain and thunderstorms extends from a
warm advection zone across the Ohio Valley southwestward into the
lower MS Valley along a cold front. As a result of the widespread
precipitation, little if any further destabilization is expected
north of the MS/TN border, while to the south, upstream heating is
allowing a gradual increase in temperatures across LA, MS and AL.

VAD winds from the region confirm strong to extreme shear profiles
with effective SRH values of 500-600 m2/s2 common ahead of the cold
front and across the Enhanced Risk area (MS into TN/KY).

Possible areas for supercell and tornado development include:
1) Storms moving out of southeast AR into northern MS, in closer
proximity to warmer surface air mass yet still in a high-shear
environment.
2) Storms moving out of southeast MO and into western KY and
southern IL, where the surface air mass is relatively cool but in a
zone of better large-scale lift ahead of the upper vorticity max.
3) Evolving out of the northeast-southwest oriented lines of storms
currently over northern MS, which will move into middle TN and
northern AL later today, in concert with ever-increasing low-level
wind shear.

..Jewell.. 03/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33219211 33959171 34349139 34699089 35439024 36508979
            37158983 37668873 37738753 37288678 36628650 36068648
            35388666 34748696 33998733 33568810 33398859 33098948
            33019069 32969140 33219211
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