[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091545
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-091815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

Areas affected...northeast Arkansas and northern Mississippi
northward into far southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 091545Z - 091815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to develop through
afternoon from northeast Arkansas across northern Mississippi and
toward the Lower Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes and damaging winds
will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to lift north across eastern AR
and now into southeast MO and western KY, with rapidly increasing
shear profiles. While instability is weak, a line of storms along a
cold front over AR, and any additional storms that develop ahead of
the upper vorticity max, may have the potential to produce tornadoes
and/or damaging winds. Instability will be the main limiting factor,
but excessive shear profiles and favorable large-scale lift may
mitigate this.

Southern parts of the line will move slower across southern AR into
MS, but here instability will be stronger, and hodographs will
clearly favor supercells.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35239209 35439176 35769136 36289069 36779023 37188982
            37518926 37788851 37738801 37528757 36728752 35458787
            35068843 34728892 34458995 34319158 34429223 34929235
            35239209
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