[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221908
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-222115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...western and middle Tennessee and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221908Z - 222115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will continue moving across portions of western and
middle Tennessee this afternoon, with a few of the strongest cells
capable of producing locally gusty/damaging winds.  WW is not
expected at this time, due to the expected limited/local nature of
the risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms moving eastward across
western and into middle Tennessee, in a loosely organized, arcing
band.  These storms are occurring in conjunction with an MCV
crossing the Tennessee/Kentucky border area near Fort Campbell KY.
Other/more isolated storms acre occurring east of the main band,
including along an outflow boundary sagging southward across
northern portions of Tennessee.

Daytime heating of the moist pre-frontal airmass has resulted in
moderate destabilization (mixed-layer CAPE 1500 to 2000 J/kg), which
will support a continuation of convection through the afternoon.
However, area VWPs show only 15 to 25 kt west-southwesterly flow in
the lower half of the troposphere, which should limit overall
potential for storm organization -- and thus degree of risk.  Still,
a few storms will be capable of producing locally gusty/damaging
winds, particularly with any transient/stronger segments within the
main convective band.

..Goss/Guyer.. 07/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35139027 35708849 36368766 36528674 36518589 36568461
            36078459 34918671 34838888 35139027
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