[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161834
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Areas affected...northeast Mississippi into the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161834Z - 162100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells may produce isolated damaging winds
and a brief, weak tornado. A watch issuance is unlikely given the
marginal, isolated severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Remnants of Barry have moved up the Mississippi Valley
and into the Ohio Valley. Weak disturbance(s) are rotating around
the base of the now open shortwave trough per satellite imagery. A
warm, moist environment is in place characterized by surface
dewpoints of 70+ F and mean mixing ratios of 15+ g/kg. Moderate
buoyancy of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is aiding isolated low-topped
supercell development (effective SCP of 1-4 across the MCD) with a
brief, weak tornado possible with these storms given 0-1 km SRH of
100+ m2/s2. A few rotating storms have been detected via KNQA, KGWX,
KPAH, and KVWX, but maximum Vrot estimates are only 15-20 knots.
Isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible with water-loaded
downdrafts, especially in areas that have had more insolation
helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. Given the overall
isolated, marginal severe threat, a watch issuance is unlikely.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37598839 37708835 38688732 38808635 38618590 38378565
            37948564 37248594 36768629 36558643 36258663 35518713
            34768756 34038809 33878874 33948906 34218951 34548969
            35378937 36018912 37598839
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