[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272056
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-272300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1881
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast Mississippi through
northern/central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272056Z - 272300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong storms may pose at least some risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts late this afternoon.  While it still appears
unlikely that this will require a watch, trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Insolation within a very moist boundary layer
(characterized by mid/upper 70s surface dew points) has contributed
to a pre-cold frontal corridor of large CAPE (up to 3000 J/kg),
along an axis across central Mississippi through northwest Alabama
and southern Middle Tennessee.  This has become the focus for
increasing thunderstorm development, aided by forcing associated
with a subtle mid-level trough within generally light westerly deep
layer mean flow.

Embedded within the weak troughing, a remnant mesoscale convective
vortex is evident migrating across middle Tennessee, perhaps
accompanied by a belt of at least modest (20-30 kt) flow in the
700-500 mb layer.  This may be contributing to sufficient shear to
support some organization of convection as it attempts to gradually
grow upscale through the remainder of the afternoon.  If this
occurs, there may be a period of increasing potential for strong
surface gusts approaching severe limits along expanding,
strengthening surface cold pools.  Otherwise, a few downbursts
appear possible, accompanied by localized potentially damaging wind
gusts.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32829043 34008857 35038775 35218615 32778645 31808797
            31709041 32829043
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