[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202206
TNZ000-KYZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 202206Z - 210000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The MCS is beginning to become more disorganized as it
approaches Middle Tennessee with storms developing ahead of the line
as well. A few severe storms are possible, but a watch is unlikely
across the area.

DISCUSSION...An MCS that moved across the mid Mississippi Valley and
into the Ohio Valley has begun to weaken and become more
disorganized over the last couple of hours. Outflow has surged ahead
of the now broken line of storms, although new convection has formed
ahead of the line across Middle Tennessee per KOHX. With a hot,
moist airmass in place ahead of the line, MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg has
developed per mesoanalysis. Damaging winds are possible out of the
expected multicellular convection into this evening given the steep
low-level lapse rates, high precipitable water values, and strong
buoyancy. Storms are expected to weaken after sunset, but there will
be a window over the next couple of hours for severe wind. Given the
isolated severe wind threat, a watch issuance is not likely at this
time.

..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35368753 35468788 36158802 36588793 36648711 36628534
            35808506 35368517 35318643 35328702 35368753
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