[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131858
TNZ000-132100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Areas affected...Portions of middle/eastern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 131858Z - 132100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and large hail threat may
increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Substantial destabilization has occurred this afternoon
along/south of an outflow boundary extending northwest-southeast
across middle/eastern TN. Isolated thunderstorms have persisted for
the past couple of hours along this boundary about 50-55 miles
south-southeast of Nashville TN. Additional convective development
appears likely across middle/eastern TN this afternoon as modest
ascent associated with a weak vorticity maximum over KY overspreads
this region. MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will support robust updraft
accelerations, and the potential for isolated damaging winds with
convective downdrafts will exist as storms move generally
east-southeastward. Marginally severe hail may also occur given the
strong instability present. Primary uncertainty regarding a greater
severe weather threat is the strength of mid-level winds and related
potential for storm organization. Somewhat stronger westerly flow is
being estimated by VWPs across KY compared to TN, but around 30-35
kt is present around 3-4 km AGL in the KHPX and KOHX VWPs. This may
be enough to encourage some clustering of cells, with a small bowing
line segment possibly developing with southeastward extent in parts
of middle/eastern TN. Watch issuance may be needed later this
afternoon (by 21Z/4 PM CDT).

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   36188789 36618702 36628593 36438488 36248449 35758479
            35358520 35018585 35048811 35328826 35818819 36188789
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