[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060740
NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-060845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Tue Nov 06 2018

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Tennessee...northeastern
Alabama....northern Georgia...western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 060740Z - 060845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for damaging wind gusts may continue another several
hours with convection spreading into the southern Appalachians.  An
isolated tornado may still not be out of the question, but this risk
seems to be in the process of diminishing.

DISCUSSION...The most vigorous convection is generally east of the
mid-level trough axis, on the southern periphery of the stronger
height falls, and near the nose of the plume of weakly unstable
boundary layer air supported by upper 60s/near 70s surface dew
points.  As the upper forcing shifts northeastward through daybreak,
large-scale ascent supporting this activity will gradually weaken.
Despite the likelihood of at least some further low-level moistening
ahead of the convection as it spreads across the southern portion of
the Cumberland Plateau into the Smoky Mountains through 09-11Z,
models suggest that destabilization will be weak, and it remains
unclear whether this will be surface-based.

Any residual near surface stable layer should mitigate the risk for
tornadoes, but stronger convection could still locally aid the
downward transfer of higher momentum (associated with 50+ kt 850 mb
flow) to the surface, contributing to potentially damaging surface
gusts.  However, the intensity of the convection seems likely to
diminish as advances into/across the southern Appalachians.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 11/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36428437 36618301 36448158 35108252 34348408 34138512
            34408592 35078570 35488526 36428437
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